Predict Enrollment: A Research Study by Cincinnati Children’s Innovations Research

Overview

Analyzing three years of survey data from districts in IL, TN, and TX, Cincinnati Children’s Innovation Research arm used statistical modeling to determine the ability of Possip Pulse Checks®️ to predict re-enrollment. This brief summarizes the findings of the larger study.

Executive Summary: Keeping Families and Students

Parent sentiment, especially the tone of qualitative feedback, is a strong predictor of
student re-enrollment. Positive or neutral tones were more closely linked to re-enrollment
than overall sentiment scores, comment type, or topic. Negative or neutral tones correlated
with lower re-enrollment.

Action Recommendations

Prioritize Proactive Engagement During Transition Years:

Families are less committed during early elementary and school transition periods. Implement targeted communication and support programs during key transition years (e.g., pre-K to K, 5th to 6th, 8th to 9th) to reinforce commitment early.

Monitor and Act on Tone of Qualitative Feedback:

Tone (positive/neutral/negative) of qualitative responses is a stronger predictor of re-enrollment than sentiment score. Revise family feedback analysis processes to examine comment tone. Prioritize tone in feedback analysis and alert school leaders to pay attention to escalating negative feedback for timely follow-up.

Annually Assess Feedback Topics:

Qualitative feedback topics predicted attrition in only 1 of 3 districts, highlighting district-specific and time-sensitive patterns. To stay responsive, conduct annual feedback analyses to identify which topics impact re-enrollment most and use the insights to guide targeted improvements and proactive outreach next school year.

Implement Quarterly Family Check-Ins Based on Pulse Check Responses:

Use Pulse Check survey data to identify families with neutral or negative responses and schedule quarterly check-ins. These touchpoints allow schools to address issues early, build stronger relationships, and improve retention.

Neutral and Negative Comments Are Significantly Associated with Attrition

Feedback Tone Is Strongest Predictor of Re-Enrollment For All Districts

Feedback

Increasingly negative feedback throughout the school year may lead to attrition.

Praise

Increasingly negative feedback throughout the school year may lead to attrition.

Key Findings

Re-Enrollment Patterns

  • Key re-enrollment periods are early elementary and transition years, when family commitment tends to be lower.

Sentiment Analysis

  • Qualitative comments are more closely linked to re-enrollment than sentiment scores.

Feedback Themes

  • Feedback tone and type influence re-enrollment, with tone being the strongest predictor.
  • Families leaving positive comments or neutral feedback are more likely to re-enroll, while those leaving neutral or negative comments are less likely.
  • Teacher Issues & Support was the most common feedback topic (22–24%), but feedback topics only significantly predicted re-enrollment in one of the three participating districts.

Conclusion

Parent feedback tone- particularly when positive or neutral- is a strong indicator of student re-enrollment, surpassing sentiment scores, comment types, or topics in predictive value. Negative tones are associated with decreased re-enrollment, while feedback topics may help identify attrition risk on a case-by-case basis.

Full Study Here

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