Going from an Administrator to a Founder Mindset
I am an entrepreneur. My wiring is fairly simple: I look for problems, and I aim to solve them.
Twenty years ago, early in my career, I helped launch schools from scratch. I worked with amazing leaders who knocked on doors and stood in community centers, churches, and empty parking lots. We had to convince families to trust us with their children when, often, the schools didn’t yet have permanent buildings, teachers, or even full approval.
As a parent, I can appreciate how crazy that is. To be fair, I sent my kids to a school that got its start just that way.
At the time, all those leaders had was a vision and a promise- and every parent was a potential customer we couldn’t afford to lose.
Those entrepreneurial organizations have aged (me included), and honestly, many of their systems aren’t prepared for how the world has changed.
And things have changed.
Back then, the competition was simple: Neighborhood school vs. magnet program. Charter vs. district. Today? Schools aren’t fighting each other anymore- they’re fighting a demographic cliff.
The biggest competitor isn’t the school across town. It’s the parent themselves choosing to opt out. It’s the kitchen table that looks like a fine place to host school, especially after the COVID experience.
We’ve moved from “Our School vs. That School” to “Our School vs. Opting Out Entirely.”
The Math Doesn't Lie
This isn’t just a feeling; the data is screaming at us.
When we look at the national landscape, we see a sea of red. Public school enrollment has dropped significantly across major swaths of the United States since 20191. In some areas, elementary enrollment- the traditional pipeline for future growth- is flattening or declining..
Simultaneously, the “market” has fragmented. Families have more choices than ever before- from microschools and homeschooling to virtual options and charters.
But here is the metric that keeps me up at night: The Tipping Point.
In our analysis of over 40,000 family respondents, we found a specific “risk zone” for retention. When a family’s sentiment score drops below 2.25 (on a 3-point scale), the attrition rate spikes.
In fact, nearly a quarter of families in the lowest sentiment bracket do not return. A similar study with Cincinnati Children’s Hospital had a similar finding – family sentiment was predictive of likelihood to re-enroll, and the tone of the qualitative feedback even more so!
This means retention is no longer a mystery. It is a predictable science. As much as enrollment declines are susceptible to demographic shifts, they are also just as susceptible to bad family experiences and schools and districts. The districts that ignore this data are flying blind into a storm.
A Tale of Two Districts
The districts that survive the next decade won’t be run by managers; entrepreneurial leaders will run them. To illustrate the difference, look at two scenarios we’ve observed recently (names changed to protect privacy):
District A: The Administrator Approach
- The Situation: Faced with a significant enrollment decline
- The Reaction: They treated it as a budget problem. They cut budgets and pulled back on sports, arts, and other engagement tools.
- The Result: Parents and students felt less connected to the school and they struggled to bring on new families, or to keep the families they had. They started a bit of a downward spiral that they are still trying to figure their way through.
District B: The Entrepreneurial Approach
- The Situation: Faced with similar demographic and enrollment challenges.
- The Reaction: They treated it as a customer acquisition problem.
- They put a top leader on the work of enrollment, expanded their work with Possip to not only learn from their current families and keep them, but also to work with and engage their new families. They invested in sports and arts programming and made enrollment a goal for everyone on their team.
- The Result: They increased their enrollment by 11 percent. They added new seats and increased their performance to their goals.
District B didn’t just “administer” their stability and growth; they fought for it.
The Audit: Are You Operating an Administrator or an Entrepreneur?
So how can you tell if your district is stuck in “Administrator Mode”?We’ve built a framework based on the Enrollment Matriculation Cycle.
An entrepreneur looks at every stage of the funnel- Influence, Capture, Convince, and Matriculate- and aggressively removes friction.
Here are a few examples of the difference in thinking:
The Future Belongs to the Builders
The hard truth is that traditional school systems weren’t built for shrinking markets. The greatest strengths of those systems and the people who lead within them- stability, consistency, predictability- can become liabilities when the ground is shifting.
You cannot “administer” your way into growth.
You must win families- just like we did in those early days, standing in empty parking lots with nothing but vision and commitment.
The future belongs to the entrepreneurial education leaders.
Ready to operate entrepreneurially?
If you are ready to stop managing decline and start building for growth, you need a plan.
We have developed a Backwards Planning Guide and a Website audit tool that helps you map your enrollment goals against key milestones, ensuring you aren’t scrambling in August.
